Predictions of the future are never anything but projections of present automatic processes and procedures, that is, of occurrences that are likely to come to pass if men do not act and if nothing unexpected happens; every action, for better or worse, and every accident necessarily destroys the whole pattern in whose frame the prediction moves and where it finds its evidence.
- Hannah Arendt
11:00 AM Updated 1/20/12 due to wOBA calculation error and additional input from fans of other teams. The result is batter lines skewed down from .001 to .005 based on SB/CS error.
12:15 PM Updated 1/20/12 to include newest Rays signing Carlos Pena. Welcome back Los, you've been missed.
Solid projections rely on both what a player has done in the past, and what similar players did in the future. Without the ability to gaze into a crystal ball we rely on numbers to gain an idea of how a baseball player will perform in the near future. The larger the sample size the closer we come to uncovering the truth about a ball player. With that in mind I wanted to use Dan Szymborski's "Zips" projections to get an idea of how the best three teams in the American League East would be expected to perform in the upcoming season. Dan does a fine job of projecting how players will hit and how often they will come up, while I took a look at fielding and base-running separately so that we have overall WAR projections for each player, position, and team. Also, I configured wOBA numbers that include stolen bases and caught stealing so that the data is more easily implemented into Sky Kalkman's WAR Calculator. This handy tool really helps simplify the process and can be fun to play around with if you are a newby to this sort of stuff.
First off, you can follow this link to see everything in one workbook. Feel free to download and tweak the numbers as you see fit. We'll start with the Rays since that is the reason we're here:
We immediately see the obvious strengths of the position players residing at 3B, 2B, and CF. LF and RF profile as being around league average. Meanwhile, we see just how badly the 1B position profiles as currently situated. For comparison, if you give Carlos Pena around 500 PAs at his projected .355 wOBA with Canzler taking over the rest of the PAs that position goes from -0.6 WAR to around 2.0 WAR. Moving on to the pitchers:
Again, innings and ERA come straight from Zips, while I've tweaked innings pitched here and there to better reflect reality, while also accounting for projected starters pitching out of the pen as you would expect the reliever to outperform his starter self. Altogether, we project the Rays total pitching to be around 26.5 WAR. Price and Shields really stand out, but Moore and Hellickson also could hit 4 WAR if they manage to pitch more innings than these projections expect while maintaining that ERA. We can put all of this together and get an expected win total:
Overall, we would project the Rays to win 92.3 games while having around a 25% chance of winning 96 games. Let's bring the Yankees and Red Sox in so that we can get an idea of context and see if that 92 wins would be enough, on paper, to win the AL East. First the Yankees:
Overall, the Yankees would be projected to win 95 games as their hitting advantage (28.2 to Rays 22.3 WAR) outweighs the Rays pitching advantage (26.5 to the Yankees 23.2 WAR). Moving on to the Red Sox:
We see the Red Sox pitching profile similarly to the Yankees rotation, while the Sox offense trumps all competitors. The Rays have the advantage in pitching, but their depth cannot make up for the how top-heavy their counterparts are on offense. If the Rays can manage to add a legitimate first basement before the season then this becomes another situation altogether, but currently, it appears the Rays are that one bat shy of being neck and neck with their rivals.
Lastly, I ranked each of the players by total expected WAR to get an idea of how the players rank:
It becomes pretty evident that the Rays have two of the best players in the AL East, but their rivals also have very good players and better players in the middle. It should be noted that I've included more Rays total compared to the other two as, frankly, I know more about how Coach Maddon will use his players compared to my ignorance on how Joe Girardi will manage his bench or what disguise Bobby Valentine will break out this year. If you throw Pena's 2.3 WAR in there for the Rays then you're basically adding another Matt Joyce and the Rays would look forward to around a two win boost, overall. This move is far from certain, but it is the Rays best chance to close the gap on the offensive end. Now here's the pitchers:
The Rays have the 2nd, 4th, & 6th best starters by projected WAR, but the Yankees follow closely with 1st, 5th & 7th. It can be argued that the Red Sox rotation is a disaster waiting to happen, but they have a durable ace and several other talented arms that basically come down to how many innings you think they will get. If 2-4 shit the bed then there could be a similar scenario to the end of last year where problems snowball quickly. That said, I fully expect the Red Sox to add an arm by the trade deadline, if not before the season even begins. If you put Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, or Matt Garza on that team then you're looking at a potential dominating rotation. Keep your fingers crossed that Cherington Bear continues to watch the trains rather than throwing dollars down the rails.
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